Our knowledge of the world is outdated. That is why we think the world is much worse off, for example with girls' education, than it really is. Would we do a test about our knowledge of the world, we would most likely score worse than chimpanzees that give random answers. (Btw, this article refers to a test that seems similar to the test in the book). Hans Rösling wants to put this straight with the book Factfulness, which he wrote in his deathbed and which was finished by his son Ola and daughter in law Anna Rösling. I read this book in Dutch (titled: Feitenkennis).
I first saw Hans Rösling presenting at Le Web 3 conference in Paris (2006) and was impressed (like all the other people in the room) by his animations (Gapminder). Later I saw many of his TED-presentations and enjoyed them very much. When I heard that he had written a book (which was published after he died), I bought it as soon as it was published in Dutch and put it on my reading list. The book review for Managementboek.nl appeared in Dutch. This post is the translation of this review. Most people know Rosling from his presentations with nice animations and jokes about serious stuff, trying to tell us how the world has changed. Apparently he didn't feel that his job was done, so this book is literally his last try against our ignorance.
1. The gap instinct. We divide the world in two: poor versus rich, developing versus developed country, and so on. Nowadays about 85% of countries has improved to the level of developed, so Rösling suggests to talk about levels 1 to 4, based on income. Most countries can be found at level 2 to 3, we are at level 4.
2. The negativity instinct. Looking at the data, the world has made improvements in many areas. However, news about disasters augments our feeling that it's not going well at all. Selective reporting shapes our image, while data shows something different.
3. The straight line instinct. This is the supposition that a trend will continue. Don't assume lines are straight.
4. The fear instinct. Many of our fears are more real for level 1 and 2 than level 3 or 4. Death by natural disasters, airplane crashes and conflicts have decreased much, in contrast to the feeling that we get from the news provision.
5. The size instinct. A single number doesn't tell us much, it easily looks huge. We have to look at proportions.
6. The generalization instinct. We love categories, but often they are misleading. We have to be cautious with generalizing our level 4 experience to the rest of the world.
7. The destiny instinct. Things are as they are, that's the way it is. This suggests nothing changes. This instinct makes it hard to believe that Africa is catching up on the Western countries.
8. The single perspective instinct. The single perspective instinct is about oversimplification: one solution for one cause. It makes us blind for information that does not fit in this perspective. Therefor, it is better to constantly test ideas for weak spots and not to claim expertise in areas where we are not competent.
8. The blame instinct. We are often looking for a simple reason why something bad happens. Someone must get the blame! As a result, we exaggerate the importance of certain individuals or groups, but it also undermines the possibility of finding a solution.
9. The urgency instinct. This instinct makes us want to take immediate action when we see danger. Often something is not so urgent that it can wait and we can think about actions better. The complexity of systems makes forecasting difficult.Rösling calls himself a possibilist. He doesn't want to sketch beautiful pictures, but to indicate what we need to worry about, based on data. Climate change, for example, or the possibility of another financial collapse. We have to focus our energy on these and not get distracted too much by fears that we hear about in the media, for example.
"Factfulness" has received much less attention in the Netherlands than, for example, in the US (Bill Gates calls it an important book). I don't understand this and I think many more people should read this book. I am thinking only of the recent discussion on vaccinations in the Netherlands (less people have their children vaccinated against for example measles). Hans Rösling would have shaken his head. "Look at the data!", you can almost hear him say. Factfulness gives you much to think over and after reading it, you'll look at claims differently. A must-read for anyone who wants to form a fact-based world view.
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